Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, July 28

I went through all 16 games on Tuesday, July 28th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Riley Greene to hit a HR — (+350, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSBAL@DET· Jul 28, 6:40 PM ET

Riley Greene

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+350

Matchup vs. Dean Kremer (Baltimore Orioles), Comerica Park, 6:40 PM ET

Greene is the safest bat on the board and it comes down to Dean Kremer's fastball. Against left-handed hitters this season, Kremer's four-seam has been crushed, a .947 SLG with four home runs allowed, and his sinker has been even worse at a 1.000 SLG. Greene is built to punish exactly that: over his last 25 batted balls against right-handers he has 3 home runs and 6 near-misses, a 24% barrel rate, 56% hard contact, 10 balls hit 300-plus feet with 5 of them clearing 350, and a 94.7 average exit velocity. Run his profile against Kremer's specific arsenal and a quarter of those balls leave the yard. Elite lefty power against a fastball that keeps getting launched is the cleanest spot on tonight's board.

Jac Caglianone to hit a HR — (+350, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSKC@MIN· Jul 28, 7:40 PM ET

Jac Caglianone

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+350

Matchup vs. Taj Bradley (Minnesota Twins), Target Field, 7:40 PM ET

This one is another fastball ambush. Against left-handed hitters, Taj Bradley leans on his four-seam over 40% of the time, and it has been barreled at a 36% clip with a .588 SLG. Caglianone feasts on fastballs: he is barreling four-seamers at a 25.6% rate on the season and 30% over his last 10, and the recent damage is loud, with home runs of 403 and 401 feet at 110 mph off the pitch. Over his last 15 batted balls against right-handers he owns a 26.7% barrel rate and 66.7% hard contact, and his hottest power zones sit right where Bradley works. A hitter this dangerous on heaters meeting a heater-heavy arm is a live one.

Wilyer Abreu to hit a HR — (+400, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSBOS@ATH· Jul 28, 9:40 PM ET

Wilyer Abreu

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+400

Matchup vs. Gage Jump (Athletics), Sutter Health Park, 9:40 PM ET

Abreu is the pick the matchup sheet undersells, because he mashes left-handed pitching. Over his last 10 batted balls against lefties he is running a 40% barrel rate and 70% hard contact, with recent home runs of 412 and 435 feet off left-handed fastballs. That matters here, because Gage Jump throws his four-seam 46% of the time to lefties and it carries a .625 SLG against. Add in Sutter Health Park, which plays up for home runs, and the same-side look that scares people away is exactly why this one is live. It is the longest price on the board and the swing I like more than the platoon column suggests.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +10025 at Hard Rock Bet. Odds are subject to change.

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