Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, July 26

I went through all 15 games on Sunday, July 26th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.

Pete Alonso to hit a HR --- (+300, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSATL@BAL· Jul 26, 1:35 PM ET

Pete Alonso

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+300

Matchup vs. Reynaldo López (Braves), Camden Yards, 1:35 PM ET

Alonso leads off the card and the matchup is the reason. Reynaldo López throws his four-seam 57% of the time to right-handed bats and it gets crushed — a .923 SLG and a 45.5% hard-hit rate against it. Alonso fits it perfectly: 8 home runs and 10 near-misses on the season with a .631 SLG, a 63.6% hard-hit rate, and 11 balls hit 350 feet or more. Over his last 25 four-seamers from righties he's hard-hitting 64% of them with a 35.7% HR/fly-ball rate. Do it in Camden Yards, a strong right-handed power park, and the ceiling is real.

Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a HR --- (+350, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCHC@PIT· Jul 26, 1:35 PM ET

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+350

Matchup vs. Braxton Ashcraft (Pirates), PNC Park, 1:35 PM ET

This is where the value sits. Braxton Ashcraft is a righty whose four-seam has been punished by lefties — a .640 SLG with 7 home runs allowed on it. Crow-Armstrong turns around as a left-handed bat and mashes right-handed pitching across the board: a .533 SLG on the four-seam, .778 on the slider, and a 1.174 SLG on the splitter, each with a hard-hit rate above 50%. He pulls the ball in the air 57% of the time, exactly the profile that turns a mistake into a homer.

Francisco Lindor to hit a HR --- (+450, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAD@NYM· Jul 26, 1:40 PM ET

Francisco Lindor

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+450

Matchup vs. Emmet Sheehan (Dodgers), Citi Field, 1:40 PM ET

The long-price swing, and a good one. Emmet Sheehan is a righty whose four-seam gets hammered by lefties — a .697 SLG with 8 home runs allowed and a 23.9% barrel rate against. Lindor bats left-handed against him and does his damage on that exact pitch: a .521 SLG with a 65.9% hard-hit rate and 4 home runs on the four-seam, with his spray chart showing the power going pull-side to right at Citi. At better than four-to-one on a hitter this steady, the price is the value.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at approximately +9,800 across the best available prices. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday’s Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 23-96-6 (-14.73U)
Total Wagered Today: Alonso (1U), Crow-Armstrong (1U), Lindor (1U). Results don’t include any combination of picks. I’m just tracking straight bets.

Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available — 1-800-GAMBLER.