Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, June 15

I went through all 10 games on Monday, June 15th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Byron Buxton to hit a HR --- (+310, Betano)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIN@TEX· Jun 15, 8:05 PM ET

Byron Buxton

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+310

Matchup vs MacKenzie Gore (Rangers), Globe Life Field, 8:05PM EST

Buxton tops off today's list posting the highest recent barrel % I've ever seen. In his last 10 BBE vs the Four-Seamer against a righty, he is posting a 60% barrel, along with a 42% season barrel. Gore has been good this season, only giving up 6 home runs, but 5 of the 6 have come against a righty, 2 on his heater. However, this pick isn't about how bad the pitcher is, but rather how good Buxton has been.

Pick 2: Yordan Alvarez to hit a HR --- (+300, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSDET@HOU· Jun 15, 8:10 PM ET

Yordan Alvarez

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+300

Matchup vs Troy Melton (Tigers), Daikin Park, 8:10PM EST

Alvarez has a dream home matchup tonight against the Tigers and starting pitcher, Troy Melton. Over his last 71.1 IP, Melton has given up 14 home runs, 9 of which have come vs. left-handed hitters. Melton throws his main two pitches 70% of the time. Those two main pitchers are the Four-Seamer and slider, which Alvarez has absolutely crushed this season.

Alvarez last 15 BBE shown above

Alvarez Spray chart over the past 2 months. Playing at home would've netted him a ~15% increase in home runs on his 30% mark

Alvarez's stats vs the pitchers top two usage pitches

Pick 3: Ian Happ to hit a HR --- (+325, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCOL@CHC· Jun 15, 8:05 PM ET

Ian Happ

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+325

Matchup vs Michael Lorenzen (Rockies), Wrigley Field, 8:05PM EST

Happ rounds out the list as my third favorite home run pick on the board. Happ has been an incredibly underrated player throughout his career, and if you aren't a huge fantasy head or bettor, you may not realize how good of a season he has truly had. Happ is posting a 10.1% season pull barrel against Lorenzen's top pitches, with a 15% season pure barrel.

Happ vs. Lorenzen history

Happ's spray chart shown above

HR Prop Parlay
Combining all three home run props: +6482 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-1.92U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 7-22-1 (+2.95U)
Total Wagered Today: Buxton(0.7U), Alvarez (1.08U), Happ (0.92U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.  

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