Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, June 14

I went through all 15 games on Sunday, June 14th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate. We've been HOT recently. We went 1/3 on Friday, 2/3 on Saturday... time to put it together today.

Pick 1: Andrew Benintendi to hit a HR --- (+425, theScore Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAD@CWS· Jun 14, 2:10 PM ET

Andrew Benintendi

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+425

Matchup vs Emmet Sheehan (Dodgers), Rate Field, 2:10PM EST

Benintendi kicks off today's list in my #1 spot mainly due to his 20% barrel with a perfect 20% pull barrel against the Four-Seamer, which Sheehan has thrown at a 50% clip over his last three starts against lefties. I'll let the data do the talking for this one.

Not to mention, the wind is blowing out strongly towards right field, and Rate Field is a left-handed hitter friendly park!

Pick 2: Daylen Lile to hit a HR --- (+600, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSEA@WSH· Jun 14, 1:35 PM ET

Daylen Lile

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+600

Matchup vs Emerson Hancock (Mariners), Nationals Park, 1:35PM EST

My goal with these posts is to give the best mix of value and chance of hitting. Similar to how I viewed Mitchell yesterday, I view Lile as today's value pick. Hancock, over the past two seasons, has given up a 1.83HR/9, around twice the league average of a 0.9 HR/9. To lefties, Hancock throws a Four-Seamer 45% of the time, a pitch Daylen has been smoking recently. He has a 26.7% barrel rate as well as a 13.3% pull barrel, a good statistic on its own. Along with this, he is posting a 28.6% blast rate, and a 60% fly ball rate.

Pick 3: Adley Rutschman to hit a HR --- (+525, theScore Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSD@BAL· Jun 14, 1:35 PM ET

Adley Rutschman

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+525

Matchup vs Walker Buehler (Padres), Oriole Park at Camden Yards, 1:35PM EST

Rutschman has been an up and down prospect during his play in the majors. However, one thing that hasn't changed is his ability to mash the Four-Seamer and Cutter combination. Over the last two seasons he has a 0.270+ ISO, 9 home runs, a 50% Hard-Hit%, and 8%+ pull barrel on both pitches. Over the course of this season, he has a 50% barrel rate, and over his last 15 BBE he has a 26.7% barrel. In Buehler's recent starts, he has ramped up his usage of these two pitches, throwing them a combined ~60% of the time.

Above is Adley's spray chart, here you can see what he does to a Four-Seam or Cutter when it's a fly ball... if all these hits were in this park, he'd have a 100% home run rate with the current filters.

HR Prop Parlay
Combining all three home run props: +18800 at Hard Rock Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 2-1 (2.34U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 6-8-1 (+4.87U)
Total Wagered Today: Benintendi(0.85U), Lile (0.5U), Rutschman (0.57U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets. 

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