Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, June 22

I went through all 13 games on Monday, June 22nd to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Kody Clemens to hit a HR --- (+472, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAD@MIN· Jun 22, 7:40 PM ET

Kody Clemens

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+472

Matchup vs. Eric Lauer (Dodgers), Target Field, 7:40PM ET

Clemens starts off today's list due to his elite matchup and history vs. Lauer. In 4 PA, he has 2 barrels, one which would've been a home run in 7/30 ball parks. Clemens has been elite on the Four-Seamer/Slider/Cutter combo that Lauer has been throwing this season, showcasing a 10.5% pull barrel, ~75% good air rate, 20% blast, etc.

Pick 2: Jackson Merrill to hit a HR --- (+622, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSATL@SD· Jun 22, 10:10 PM ET

Jackson Merrill

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+622

Matchup vs. Grant Holmes (Braves), Petco Park, 10:10PM ET

Holmes has allowed 13 home runs this season, with 8 of them coming vs. left-handed batters. Merrill has been great as of late especially against Holmes' top two pitches, the Slider/Four-Seamer combo. Merrill has posted a 20% barrel in his last 15 BBE, along with a 60% Hard-Hit rate, 42% blast, along with a 50%+ good air rate. Over this stretch he has also hit 4 of these 15 over 350 feet.

Pick 3: Kyle Stowers to hit a HR --- (+425, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTEX@MIA· Jun 22, 6:40 PM ET

Kyle Stowers

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+425

Matchup vs. Rocker (Rangers), loanDepot park, 6:40PM ET

Stowers rounds out the list for the June 22nd slate due to his incredible power and ability to size up Rocker's top offerings, the Slider/Sinker combo. Stowers has posted a season barrel rate of 27.8% along with a 16.7% pull barrel rate. He has put these two pitches in the air more often than not, and has 7 hits over 350 feet with an average hit distance of 335 feet. Rocker allows a 52% Hard-Hit rate toward lefties, showing some vulnerability.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +16212 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+1.48U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 10-35-2 (-1.99U)
Total Wagered Today: Merrill (0.63U), Clemens (0.57U), Stowers (0.8U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.  

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