Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Saturday, June 20

I went through all 13 games on Saturday, June 20th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Player to hit a HR --- (+424, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIN@ARI· Jun 20, 10:10 PM ET

Corbin Carroll

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+424

Matchup vs. Taj Bradley (Twins), Chase Field, 10:10PM ET

Corbin Carroll tops today's list due to his history vs. tonight's starter and against RHP in general. On top of Carroll's elite hitting stats, Bradley has given up 5 home runs in his last five starts. He has also given up an 18.6% barrel to left-handed hitters. Carroll has two home runs against Bradley, along with 4 of his last 5 BBE being fly balls, and two being barreled.

Bradley's last five starts & Carroll's metrics vs. the Four-Seamer/cutter from a RHP

Carroll's history vs. Bradley

Pick 2: Isaac Paredes to hit a HR --- (+500, Fanatics)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCLE@HOU· Jun 20, 7:15 PM ET

Isaac Paredes

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+500

Matchup vs. Joey Cantillo (Guardians), Daikin Park, 7:15PM ET

Paredes has a great matchup tonight vs. a pitcher who gives up a lot of home runs/hard contact to RHB on his top two pitches. The most important metric in this data set is the PullAir% (any hit in the air to the hitter's pull side). Daikin Park has an extremely shallow left field. Hitters are only required to hit a fly ball around 315-350 feet to pull it into the seats. Combining the field matrix with Paredes' pull air stats makes this is a great opportunity. Paredes is also the only hitter in the pitch-tracking era to pull all of his first 100 home runs.

Cantillo's season stats & Paredes L15 BBE vs. a LHP who throws the Four-Seam/Change

Paredes spray chart when hitting a fly ball off a LHP recently. You can see ~8 BBE that would've been home runs had they been playing at home!

Pick 3: Paul Goldschmidt to hit a HR --- (+400, theScore Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCIN@NYY· Jun 20, 1:35 PM ET

Paul Goldschmidt

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+400

Matchup vs. Andrew Abbott (Reds), Yankee Stadium, 1:35PM ET

Paul has a great matchup vs. Abbott, who has recently struggled vs. RHB, giving up 4 home runs over his last five starts. He's also given up a 10%+ barrel to both the Four-Seamer and Change Up which are Abbott's top two pitches.

Abbott's last five starts & Goldschmidt season stats against his top two pitches

Goldschmidt's history vs. Abbott

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +10966 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (-0.17U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 8-27-1 (-3.47U)
Total Wagered Today: Carroll (0.88U), Paredes (0.64U), Goldschmidt (0.8U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets. 

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