Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, June 23
I went through all 15 games on Tuesday, June 23rd to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Pick 1: Bryce Harper to hit a HR --- (+375, Hard Rock Bet)
PHI@
WSH· Jun 23, 6:45 PM ET
Bryce Harper
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Zack Littell (Nationals), Nationals Park, 6:45PM ET
Bryce Harper kicks off today's list due to his season stats against Littell's top two pitches. Against these pitches, Harper has 8 home runs in just over 40 BBE. He has a 15-30% barrel on both pitches Littell tends to throw to left-handed hitters. This is an all-around great matchup for Harper. You can see more of his stats below.
Pick 2: Kazuma Okamoto to hit a HR --- (+377, DraftKings)
HOU@
TOR· Jun 23, 4:07 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Peter Lambert (Astros), Rogers Centre, 4:07PM ET
Okamoto has been unreal vs. Lambert's top two in his arsenal recently, hitting two home runs in the past 3 days, along with 3 barrels in the last 4 days. Lambert also proves to be a good matchup for Okamoto, giving up a near-perfect launch angle, a 25% barrel rate, and a 53% Hard-Hit rate off his heater. Okamoto will be hunting his fastball, and if he gets a hold of one, there's a great chance it lands in the second deck.
Pick 3: Jordan Walker to hit a HR --- (+459, DraftKings)
ARI@
STL· Jun 23, 7:45 PM ET
Jordan Walker
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks), Busch Stadium, 7:45PM ET
Walker rounds out today's list due to his elite barrel rate on Rodriguez's top pitch, the Four-Seamer. Walker has had the start to his season that all Cardinals fans were hoping for, and I'm expecting another good performance from him tomorrow. In just 16 BBE against a southpaw who throws a Four-Seamer, Walker has FOUR home runs. He also has an extremely low strikeout rate at just 10%. To go along with this, Walker has an elite 81% Hard-Hit rate.
HR Prop Parlay
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Combining all three home run props: +11703 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.
Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-2U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 10-38-2 (-3.99U)
Total Wagered Today: Harper (0.84U), Okamoto (0.83U), Walker (0.68U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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