Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, June 29
I went through all 13 games on Monday, June 29th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Pick 1: Byron Buxton to hit a HR --- (+239, Novig)
MIN@
HOU· Jun 29, 8:10 PM ET
Byron Buxton
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Peter Lambert (Astros), Daikin Park, 8:10PM ET
Buxton tops off today's list and the reasoning is rather simple. Buxton against RHP Four-Seamers has a 40% barrel rate. His matchup against Lambert means he will get a lot of heaters and will be able to do damage in Daikin Park with the short porch in left field. I'd be surprised if his current odds (+240) don't drop by morning.
Pick 2: Player to hit a HR --- (+375, Hard Rock Bet)
NYM@
TOR· Jun 29, 7:07 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Sean Manaea (Mets), Rogers Centre, 7:07PM ET
Okamoto comes in at second place for my favorite homers list for June 29th. Okamoto has been elite against RHP since coming to the MLB, posting a 16.7% barrel rate against Manaea's pitch mix as well as a 26.7% barrel rate in his last 15 BBE on the Four-Seamer, which is Manaea's top offering.
Pick 3: Spencer Steer hit a HR --- (+475, theScore Bet)
CIN@
MIL· Jun 29, 7:40 PM ET
Spencer Steer
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Robert Gasser (Brewers), American Family Field, 7:40PM ET
Steer rounds out today's list due to his matchup and season hitting stats vs. LHP. Steer has been elite against every one of Gasser's offerings this season, hitting north of .300 on all of his main pitches. This includes a 30%+ barrel rate on 3 of those 4 main pitches. On the season, Steer is hitting 20-for-61 with 5 home runs against lefties.
HR Prop Parlay
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Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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