Best MLB Home Run Props Today: HR Picks for Friday, July 3

I went through all 13 games on Friday, July 3rd, to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Junior Caminero to hit a HR — (+330, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@HOU· Jul 3, 8:15 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+330

Matchup vs. Spencer Arrighetti (Astros), Daikin Park, 8:15PM ET

Caminero tops today's list and, honestly, the bat speaks for itself right now. Jcam has hit 4 home runs in his last 5 games and 9 over his last 10. Arrighetti is a four-seam-heavy righty, and the four-seamer is exactly the pitch Caminero has been sitting on, barreling it at a 21% clip. Then you get the park: Daikin Park plays as a 1.23 HR factor to right-handed bats, and with the wind pushing out and that short porch in left, it's about as friendly a spot as a righty can ask for. Using Propfinder, my model has him at a 25.9% chance to go yard against a market implying 23.9% which is the top play on the board.

Pick 2: Miguel Vargas to hit a HR — (+425, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCWS@CLE· Jul 3, 7:10 PM ET

Miguel Vargas

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+425

Matchup vs. Gavin Williams (Guardians), Progressive Field, 7:10PM ET

Vargas comes in at second, and the matchup is the whole story. Gavin Williams has been one of the most homer-prone arms in baseball against righties this year, a 2.02 HR/9, a 10.6% barrel rate allowed, and a brutal 50%+ hard-hit rate. Vargas has been scorching in the sample that matters, running a 26.7% barrel rate over his last 15 balls in play, and he's squaring up Williams' sweeper which is his top offering along with a 13% barrel clip. Batting third with elite recent contact, +450 is a number I'd expect to shrink by first pitch.

Pick 3: Jake Bauers to hit a HR — (+488, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIL@ARI· Jul 3, 9:45 PM ET

Jake Bauers

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+488

Matchup vs. Jose Cabrera (Diamondbacks), Chase Field, 9:45PM ET

Bauers rounds out the list with the cleanest hitting card on the slate — he grades out top-tier in just about every window I look at, season all the way through his last 15. He's a lefty who lives in the air (57% air rate) and barrels the four-seamer at 20%, which is a problem for Jose Cabrera, a righty coughing up a 1.69 HR/9 and an 11% barrel rate. Chase Field's roof will be closed in the Arizona heat, and at +488 on Novig this is the value swing of the three.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: roughly +13,300 as a true three-leg price (three separate games, so the exact ticket will vary by book). High variance by nature — stake accordingly. Odds are subject to change.
Yesterday's Results: 0-2 (-1.47U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 11-54-3 (-12.87U)
Total Wagered Today: Jcam (1.03U), Vargas (0.72U), Bauers (0.63U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.  

Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake). Results don't include any combination of picks — I'm just tracking straight bets.