Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, September 15
I went through all 15 games on Monday, September 15th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.
Coby Mayo to hit a HR --- (+388, Novig)
Mayo is a 23-homer right-handed bat drawing the left-hander Sean Manaea, whom the model flags hard to righties with a 1.33 HR-risk mark. Manaea has allowed a .626 slugging percentage and a 16.7% HR/FB rate to right-handed hitters this year.
Mayo’s own recent contact is elite, with a 99.3 mph exit velocity and a 62.5% hard-hit rate, and his matchup edges light up the zone chart, hitting five of Manaea’s seven most-used zones with power scores in the 93-99 range. At +388 he is a strong righty-on-lefty power play.
Lazaro Montes to hit a HR --- (+529, DraftKings)
Montes is the ceiling swing. The rookie has been mashing in a small sample, with a .615 slugging percentage and a .925 OPS, and he draws Ryan Johnson, whom the model flags to left-handed hitters with a 1.14 HR-risk mark.
His recent batted ball is loud, with a 94.3 mph exit velocity and a 55.6% hard-hit rate. At +529 the young lefty’s raw power is well worth the swing.
Luis Garcia Jr. to hit a HR --- (+443, DraftKings)
Garcia is having a career power year: 30 home runs, an .864 OPS and a .546 slugging percentage. He is a left-handed bat getting Bailey Ober, whom the model grades at a 0.44 HR-risk mark to lefties.
His recent contact grades well, with a 93.3 mph exit velocity and a 65% hard-hit rate. At +443 the 30-homer bat rounds out the card.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +15270. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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