Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, September 15

I went through all 15 games on Monday, September 15th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.

Coby Mayo to hit a HR — (+388, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSBAL@NYM· Sep 15, 7:10 PM ET

Coby Mayo

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+388

Mayo is a 23-homer right-handed bat drawing the left-hander Sean Manaea, whom the model flags hard to righties with a 1.33 HR-risk mark. Manaea has allowed a .626 slugging percentage and a 16.7% HR/FB rate to right-handed hitters this year.

Mayo’s own recent contact is elite, with a 99.3 mph exit velocity and a 62.5% hard-hit rate, and his matchup edges light up the zone chart, hitting five of Manaea’s seven most-used zones with power scores in the 93-99 range. At +388 he is a strong righty-on-lefty power play.

Lazaro Montes to hit a HR — (+529, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSEA@LAA· Sep 15, 9:38 PM ET

Lazaro Montes

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+529

Montes is the ceiling swing. The rookie has been mashing in a small sample, with a .615 slugging percentage and a .925 OPS, and he draws Ryan Johnson, whom the model flags to left-handed hitters with a 1.14 HR-risk mark.

His recent batted ball is loud, with a 94.3 mph exit velocity and a 55.6% hard-hit rate. At +529 the young lefty’s raw power is well worth the swing.

Luis Garcia Jr. to hit a HR — (+443, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSNYY@MIN· Sep 15, 7:40 PM ET

Luis Garcia Jr.

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+443

Garcia is having a career power year: 30 home runs, an .864 OPS and a .546 slugging percentage. He is a left-handed bat getting Bailey Ober, whom the model grades at a 0.44 HR-risk mark to lefties.

His recent contact grades well, with a 93.3 mph exit velocity and a 65% hard-hit rate. At +443 the 30-homer bat rounds out the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +15270. Odds are subject to change.

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