Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, September 14

I went through all 10 games on Sunday, September 14th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.

Hunter Goodman to hit a HR — (+290, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSD@COL· Sep 14, 8:40 PM ET

Hunter Goodman

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+290

Goodman is a 38-homer bat with a .522 slugging percentage, and he gets to hit at Coors Field, the best home run park in baseball, against Casey Mize. The model flags Mize hard to right-handed hitters with a 1.36 HR-risk mark, and he has allowed a .605 slugging percentage and a 30.8% HR/FB rate to righties in the recent look.

Goodman’s matchup edges light up the zone chart, hitting six of Mize’s seven most-used zones with power scores in the 88-to-97 range. At +290 the power play at altitude is the anchor.

Luis Campusano to hit a HR — (+464, Polymarket)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSD@COL· Sep 14, 8:40 PM ET

Luis Campusano

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+464

Campusano is the value swing. He has just 7 home runs on the season, but his recent batted ball is loud, with a home run and multiple 105-plus mph line drives in the sample, and he also gets the thin air at Coors Field.

He draws Tomoyuki Sugano, and his own contact quality (an 89.4 mph exit velocity and a 45.6% hard-hit rate) plays up at altitude. At +464 the righty’s pop in a launching pad is worth the swing.

Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a HR — (+306, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSATL@CHC· Sep 14, 7:40 PM ET

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+306

Crow-Armstrong is having an MVP-caliber season: 41 home runs, a .933 OPS and a .562 slugging percentage. He is a left-handed bat drawing Reynaldo López, whom the model grades at a 0.94 HR-risk mark to lefties.

His recent power is scorching, with a 99.4 mph exit velocity, a 40% barrel rate and a 62.5% HR/FB over his last 15. At +306 the 40-homer bat at Wrigley is a premium play to finish the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +6988. Odds are subject to change.

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