Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, September 14
I went through all 10 games on Sunday, September 14th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.
Hunter Goodman to hit a HR --- (+290, Kalshi)
Goodman is a 38-homer bat with a .522 slugging percentage, and he gets to hit at Coors Field, the best home run park in baseball, against Casey Mize. The model flags Mize hard to right-handed hitters with a 1.36 HR-risk mark, and he has allowed a .605 slugging percentage and a 30.8% HR/FB rate to righties in the recent look.
Goodman’s matchup edges light up the zone chart, hitting six of Mize’s seven most-used zones with power scores in the 88-to-97 range. At +290 the power play at altitude is the anchor.
Luis Campusano to hit a HR --- (+464, Polymarket)
Campusano is the value swing. He has just 7 home runs on the season, but his recent batted ball is loud, with a home run and multiple 105-plus mph line drives in the sample, and he also gets the thin air at Coors Field.
He draws Tomoyuki Sugano, and his own contact quality (an 89.4 mph exit velocity and a 45.6% hard-hit rate) plays up at altitude. At +464 the righty’s pop in a launching pad is worth the swing.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a HR --- (+306, Kalshi)
Crow-Armstrong is having an MVP-caliber season: 41 home runs, a .933 OPS and a .562 slugging percentage. He is a left-handed bat drawing Reynaldo López, whom the model grades at a 0.94 HR-risk mark to lefties.
His recent power is scorching, with a 99.4 mph exit velocity, a 40% barrel rate and a 62.5% HR/FB over his last 15. At +306 the 40-homer bat at Wrigley is a premium play to finish the card.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +6988. Odds are subject to change.
Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available --- 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
Related reading
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, September 10
Today's top three MLB home run props for Thursday, September 10: Alec Bohm, Tristan Peters, and Jake Burger.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, September 9
Today's top three MLB home run props for Wednesday, September 9: Bryce Harper, Ben Rice, and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, September 8
Today's top three MLB home run props for Tuesday, September 8: Spencer Jones, Daylen Lile, and Samuel Basallo.
Find profitable props faster
PropFinder has all the tools to help you make smarter bets and find real edges with data-driven insights.