Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, September 16

I went through all 15 games on Wednesday, September 16th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.

Cam Smith to hit a HR --- (+600, Fanatics)

Smith is a rookie with 20 home runs, and he is a right-handed bat getting the left-hander Daniel Lynch IV at home in Daikin Park. His spray chart against that pitch mix shows a 15.2% home run rate on fly balls in the park.

Smith’s own contact is solid, with an 89.4 mph exit velocity and a 44.4% hard-hit rate. At +600 the righty-on-lefty power spot at home is a strong-priced value swing.

Riley Greene to hit a HR --- (+335, Novig)

Greene is a 20-homer left-handed bat with an .854 OPS, and his matchup edges against Max Scherzer light up the zone chart, hitting four of Scherzer’s seven most-used zones with power scores in the 87-97 range. Scherzer grades at a 0.52 HR-risk mark to lefties.

The game is at Rogers Centre, a hitter-friendly yard, and Greene’s bat has plenty of pop. At +335 the matchup and park make this a strong leg.

Juan Soto to hit a HR --- (+343, Kalshi)

Soto is the star anchor: 25 home runs, a .917 OPS and a .524 slugging percentage. He draws Chris Bassitt at home in Citi Field, and his recent batted ball is elite, with a 95.4 mph exit velocity, a 55% hard-hit rate and a 30% barrel rate.

At +343 the superstar lefty is a premium play to round out the card, and few hitters in baseball punish mistakes like Soto.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +11252. Odds are subject to change.

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