Best MLB Home Run Props Today: HR Picks for Saturday, October 17

I went through the 1 game on Saturday, October 17, a playoff slate with Tampa Bay visiting Cleveland, to find the best anytime home run props on the board.

The picks are ranked by PropFinder's PF Rating for home runs, which weighs a hitter's recent exit velocity and barrel rate along with how he matches up against the pitcher's pitch mix. Here are the three highest-rated plays, with the best price I found for each.

Junior Caminero to hit a HR (+650, Bally Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@CLE· Oct 17, 8:08 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+650

Junior Caminero has real power this season, with 22 home runs in 331 plate appearances, an ISO of .261 and a .552 slugging percentage. He backs it with a 13.4% barrel rate, a 53.1% hard-hit rate and a 93.9 mph average exit velocity. His last 15 games look even better, with a 94.8 mph average exit velocity and a 20% barrel rate, which is why he tops the board with a PF Rating of 62.6.

Caminero faces right-hander Shawn Armstrong, the listed starter for Cleveland. The hitter pitch mix reads strongly in his favor, since his power shows up against the sinkers, four-seamers and sweepers that right-handers throw. Progressive Field is about neutral for home runs at a 0.985 factor. Bally Bet has him at +650, above the +526 median across 11 books. A top rating and a price well above the market make him the best value of the day.

Patrick Bailey to hit a HR (+950, Bally Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@CLE· Oct 17, 8:08 PM ET

Patrick Bailey

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+950

Patrick Bailey is the surprise at number two, and the case rests on his recent contact. Over his last 15 games he has a 26.67% barrel rate and a 93.72 mph average exit velocity, well above his season marks of a 9.6% barrel rate and an 89.4 mph average. The season totals are modest at 9 home runs in 205 plate appearances with an ISO of .182, but the current form is what drives his PF Rating of 60.2.

The switch hitter will bat left-handed against Tampa Bay starter Nick Martinez, a right-hander. His hitter pitch mix is built on damage against four-seam fastballs, which he sees plenty of from right-handers. Progressive Field is about neutral for home runs at a 0.985 factor. Bally Bet offers +950, better than the +880 median across 11 books. At that price, a hot bat and a favorable pitch mix make him a fair longshot.

Jonathan Aranda to hit a HR (+600, theScore)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@CLE· Oct 17, 8:08 PM ET

Jonathan Aranda

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+600

Jonathan Aranda brings the loudest recent contact of the three. In his last 15 games he has averaged 96.63 mph off the bat with a 13.33% barrel rate. For the season he has 9 home runs in 259 plate appearances, with an ISO of .175, a 10.8% barrel rate and a 53% hard-hit rate. His 93.9 mph average exit velocity matches Caminero's, and he lifts the ball with a 34.9% fly ball rate, which gives him a PF Rating of 53.5.

Aranda hits left-handed against Shawn Armstrong, the listed Cleveland starter, who leans on four-seamers, sweepers and cutters against lefties. His power against right-handed four-seamers is the main pitch-mix input behind the rating. Progressive Field is about neutral for home runs at a 0.985 factor. theScore has him at +600 against a +575 median across 11 books, a small edge. Strong recent contact and a manageable matchup make him a reasonable third play.

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