Best MLB Home Run Props Today: HR Picks for Sunday, October 18

I went through the 1 game on Sunday, October 18, and this is a playoff slate, so the whole board comes down to Tampa Bay at Cleveland. With only one game, all three of my home run picks come from the same ballgame, which keeps the focus on one park, two starters and the bats most likely to exploit them.

Picks are ranked by PropFinder's PF Rating for home runs, which weighs recent exit velocity and barrel rate along with how each hitter matches up against the opposing pitcher's mix. Here are the top anytime home run props for today.

Patrick Bailey to hit a HR (+1000, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@CLE· Oct 18, 5:08 PM ET

Patrick Bailey

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+1000

Patrick Bailey leads the board with a PF Rating of 68.2. The Cleveland switch hitter has 9 home runs in 208 plate appearances this season with an ISO of .179 and a 9.4% barrel rate. The recent form is the real draw: over his last 15 games he is averaging 90.68 mph in exit velocity with a 20% barrel rate, and he has 19 batted balls of 350 feet or more on the year.

Bailey faces Tampa Bay right-hander Drew Rasmussen, and his results against four-seamers, changeups and sinkers grade out strongly in the rating. Progressive Field plays about neutral for home runs at 0.985. The best price is +1000 at Hard Rock, ahead of the +880 median across 11 books. A hot barrel rate and a favorable pitch-mix fit make that a fair number for a long shot.

Chase DeLauter to hit a HR (+1000, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@CLE· Oct 18, 5:08 PM ET

Chase DeLauter

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+1000

Chase DeLauter comes in with a PF Rating of 58.2. The Cleveland left-handed bat has 10 home runs in 280 plate appearances with an ISO of .178, a .452 slugging percentage and a 48.3% hard-hit rate. His recent contact has been loud: a 92.62 mph average exit velocity and a 13.3% barrel rate across his last 15 games, with 21 balls of 350 feet or more this season.

He draws Rasmussen, a right-hander, and DeLauter's damage against fastballs and changeups lines up with a pitch mix heavy on four-seamers and cutters. Progressive Field is about neutral for home runs at 0.985. DraftKings has the best price at +1000 against a median of +850 across 11 books. Strong recent exit velocity and a left-on-right matchup make the extra value worth taking.

Junior Caminero to hit a HR (+600, Bally Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@CLE· Oct 18, 5:08 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+600

Junior Caminero rounds out the list with a PF Rating of 50. The Tampa Bay slugger has 4 home runs in 106 plate appearances this season with a .207 ISO, a .506 slugging percentage and a 14.1% barrel rate. Over his last 15 games he is averaging 95.51 mph in exit velocity with a 13.3% barrel rate, the hardest contact of the three picks.

He faces Cleveland left-hander Parker Messick, and Caminero's numbers against changeups and fastballs from lefties are solid, though Messick's fastball-heavy mix grades as a tougher test than the other two matchups. Progressive Field is about neutral for home runs at 0.985. Bally Bet has the best price at +600, up from a +500 median across 11 books. The case is elite exit velocity at a price that pays well above the market.

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