Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, September 10
I went through all 5 games on Thursday, September 10th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.
Alec Bohm to hit a HR --- (+650, Hard Rock)
Bohm is a right-handed bat drawing Cristian Javier, whom the model flags hard to righties with a 1.17 HR-risk mark. Javier has allowed a .519 slugging percentage and a 14.3% HR/FB rate to right-handed hitters this year.
Bohm’s recent contact grades well, with an 89.6 mph exit velocity, a 40% hard-hit rate and a 13.3% barrel rate, and Citizens Bank Park is a plus power yard. At +650 the righty-on-righty power spot is worth a look.
Tristan Peters to hit a HR --- (+852, Novig)
Peters is a 12-homer lefty having a quietly strong season with a .470 slugging percentage, and he draws Jared Jones, whom the model grades at a 0.79 HR-risk mark to lefties.
His recent power is loud, with a 93.2 mph exit velocity, a 33.3% barrel rate and a 46.7% fly-ball rate over the sample. At +852 the young lefty is a high-ceiling boom leg to anchor the card’s upside.
Jake Burger to hit a HR --- (+475, Fanatics)
Burger brings 26 home runs into a matchup the model loves. Logan Gilbert has been extremely homer-prone to right-handed bats, with a 1.67 HR-risk mark and a .723 slugging percentage allowed to righties in the recent look.
Burger’s batted ball is loud, with a 100 mph exit velocity, an 80% hard-hit rate and a 26.7% barrel rate in the sample. T-Mobile Park is a tougher yard, but the matchup quality carries it. At +475 the power play is live.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +40180. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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