Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, July 22

I went through all 15 games on Wednesday, July 22nd to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Two of today's three are less about what a pitcher has done all season and more about what he has been giving up over his last few starts, which is exactly the kind of edge the season line hides. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Brandon Lowe to hit a HR --- (+299, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSPIT@NYY· Jul 22, 1:05 PM ET

Brandon Lowe

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+299

Matchup vs. Gerrit Cole (Yankees), Yankee Stadium

Lowe leads off the card at the shortest price and the left/right split is the whole case. Cole is the arm nobody calls vulnerable, but against left handed hitters this season he has allowed a 1.98 HR/9 with a .446 SLG, a .230 ISO, and an 18.9% HR/FB rate, and he fills that side with the four seamer 44% of the time, the changeup 22%, and the slider 16%. Against the pitches Cole throws, Lowe has 8 home runs and 11 near misses with a .694 SLG, a .403 ISO, a 30.6% barrel rate, and a 55.1% hard hit rate, and he has put 22 batted balls over 300 feet with 12 past 350. He is a pull side lefty who puts 30.6% of his air balls to the pull field, and at Yankee Stadium that is the short porch. With the wind blowing out, this is a spot where the ballpark does as much work as the matchup.

Pick 2: Jordan Walker to hit a HR --- (+380, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSTL@LAA· Jul 22, 4:07 PM ET

Jordan Walker

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+380

Matchup vs. Reid Detmers (Angels), Angel Stadium

Walker is next and the four seamer is the pitch to target. On the season Detmers' book looks fine, but that is not the pitch hitters have been facing lately. Over his last five starts he has thrown the four seam 45% of the time to right handed hitters and it has been getting hammered, a .775 SLG and a .400 ISO with 4 home runs and a 14.7% barrel rate on that pitch alone, and the slider behind it has not been missing bats. Against the pitches Detmers throws, Walker has 4 home runs and 6 near misses with a .750 SLG, a .438 ISO, a 25.0% barrel rate, and a 75.0% hard hit rate at a 100.2 average exit velocity, and he has 13 batted balls over 300 feet with 7 past 350. Over his last 15 at bats against left handed pitching he is averaging 99.8 mph off the bat and barreling 33.3% of the four seam and slider mix, a stretch with batted balls of 400, 385, and 287 feet. With the wind blowing out at 8 mph in Anaheim, the recent form on this pitcher is the read.

Pick 3: Jake Bauers to hit a HR --- (+386, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSNYM@MIL· Jul 22, 2:10 PM ET

Jake Bauers

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+386

Matchup vs. Christian Scott (Mets), American Family Field

Bauers closes the card and his pitcher's four seamer has been the most hittable pitch on the board. Over his last five starts Scott has gone to the four seam 49% of the time against left handed bats and it has been crushed, a .913 SLG and a .652 ISO with 5 home runs, a 45.5% barrel rate, and 72.7% hard contact on that pitch alone. Against the pitches Scott throws, Bauers has 7 home runs and 8 near misses with a .604 SLG, a .271 ISO, an 18.5% barrel rate, and a 60.0% hard hit rate, and he has put 25 batted balls over 300 feet with 11 past 350. He is a left handed bat getting that four seam 49% of the time in this matchup, and it is the pitch that has been leaving the yard. At +386 he is the longest price on the card against the most exposed pitch.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +9208 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 22-85-6 (-9.13U)
Total Wagered Today: Lowe (1U), Walker (1U), Bauers (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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