Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, July 8

I went through all 15 games on Wednesday, July 8th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Jordan Walker to hit a HR --- (+513, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIL@STL· Jul 8, 7:45 PM ET

Jordan Walker

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+496

Matchup vs. Kyle Harrison (Brewers), Busch Stadium, 7:45 PM ET

Walker leads off the card and the matchup fits him perfectly. Harrison is a lefty who leans on his four-seam fastball a slate-high 59% of the time, and that is the exact pitch Walker has been destroying. Against four-seamers from left-handed pitching Walker is slugging .952 with a 27.8% barrel rate, an 83.3% hard-hit rate, and 4 home runs on the pitch. Zoom out to Harrison's full mix and Walker is still barreling 17.6% with a 76.5% hard-hit rate and a 100.8 mph average exit velocity, so the damage is not one-pitch noise. Harrison has been homer prone to righties, and Walker is scorching right now with 2 home runs over his last 5 games. He is a high-end power bat getting a heavy dose of the one pitch he punishes most. At +513 this is the most likely homer on the board today.

Pick 2: Garrett Mitchell to hit a HR --- (+680, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIL@STL· Jul 8, 7:45 PM ET

Garrett Mitchell

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+680

Matchup vs. Michael McGreevy (Cardinals), Busch Stadium, 7:45 PM ET

Mitchell is next and the matchup sets up in his favor. McGreevy is a righty with one of the lowest strikeout profiles on the slate, so the ball is in play against him constantly, and he has been homer prone to left-handed bats. Against McGreevy's mix Mitchell is slugging .533 with a 23.4% barrel rate and a 59.4% hard-hit rate. The recent tape is even louder. Over his last 15 balls in play against right-handed fastballs and cutters he is barreling 33.3% at a 99.3 mph average exit velocity, and the results back it up, a 435-foot homer off a cutter, a 407-foot homer off another cutter, a 365-foot shot on a four-seam, plus a 421-foot double off Merrill Kelly. A pull-side lefty with that kind of power against a contact righty who gives homers up, at +680 there is a lot to like.

Pick 3: Hunter Feduccia to hit a HR --- (+1000, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSNYY@TB· Jul 8, 6:40 PM ET

Hunter Feduccia

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+1000

Matchup vs. Gerrit Cole (Yankees), Tampa Bay, 6:40 PM ET

Feduccia rounds out the card as the value swing. The name on the mound scares people off, but Cole has been homer prone to left-handed bats this year, a 2.15 HR/9 with a 20.7% HR/FB, and that is where the price gets interesting. Cole goes to his four-seam fastball 45% of the time against lefties, and Feduccia has been squaring that pitch up, barreling four-seamers at a 25% rate on the season and a 40% clip over his last 15 balls in play, including a 396-foot home run off Will Warren just yesterday. He is a left-handed bat with a favorable platoon look and puts the ball in the air, and there is a breeze blowing out to right at 7 mph to help the carry. Most of the market is paying up for the safe names tonight, so a lefty who barrels the fastball against a homer-prone arm at +1000 is the best value on the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +42250 at Hard Rock Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-1-1 (+2U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 16-63-4 (-7.17U)
Total Wagered Today: Walker (1U), Mitchell (1U), Feduccia (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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