Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, June 18

I went through all 9 games on Thursday, June 18th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Player to hit a HR --- (+280, Fanatics)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCWS@NYY· Jun 18, 7:05 PM ET

Ben Rice

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+280

Matchup vs. Sean Burke (White Sox), Yankee Stadium, 7:05PM ET

Ben Rice tops off today's list due to his extreme power against right-handers. This season he is batting .296 with a .355 ISO and 15 home runs in just 169 PA vs. right-handed pitchers. On Burke's main pitch, the Four-Seamer, he has been excellent, posting a .806 ISO, 5 home runs and a 44% barrel. On top of the data, the wind is blowing out at 17 mph and they're playing at Yankee Stadium, which is the best part for left-handed hitters in the league.

Pick 2: Byron Buxton to hit a HR --- (+265, Fanatics)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIN@TEX· Jun 18, 2:35 PM ET

Byron Buxton

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+265

Matchup vs. Jack Leiter (Rangers), Globe Life Field, 2:35 PM ET

I had Buxton at the #1 slot a few blogs ago, and he cashed! Why not run it back? Today he has another good matchup vs. a right-hander. Leiter throws the Four-Seam/Slider combo as his top two pitches, a vulnerable mix to throw to the Minnesota slugger. On the season, Buxton is posting a 24.1% barrel rate along with a 14.8% pull barrel rate, 293 ft. avg. hit distance, 52% Hard-Hit rate, etc. Buxton is also 2-2 against Leiter, with a double and a home run.

Pick 3: Bobby Witt to hit a DOUBLE--- (+339, DraftKings)

PLAYER DOUBLESSTL@KC· Jun 18, 7:40 PM ET

Bobby Witt Jr.

Over 0.5 Player Doubles

Bet now+339

Matchup vs. Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals), Kauffman Stadium, 7:40PM ET

I know, I know. You guys come here to see my favorite home run plays. However, I find Witt to be such an interesting pick, not for a home run, but a double. Over the course of this season, Witt has posted very solid numbers vs. left-handed pitchers. However, I noticed he rarely goes yard against them. In the following screenshots you'll see although he is posting a high barrel, his fly ball rate and ground ball rates are low. This leaves only one other option since most hits are barreled: line drives. This is also shown by the launch angle, an average of 19 and 7.5 degrees is right in the line-drive launch angle category.

Over the past two seasons (199 PA), he's hit just 2 home runs off a left-hander, a measly 1% of all PA. However, he's also hit 20 (10%) doubles against left-handed pitchers. The odds are slightly better for his homer at +360, but when recent data gives me a 1% chance or 10% chance, I know where I'm taking my money.

2025 statistics above

2026 statistics above

Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +5653 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-2.11U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 8-27-1 (-0.13U)
Total Wagered Today: Rice (1.15U), Buxton (1.14U), Witt (0.88U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.   

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