Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, June 17

I went through all 14 games on Wednesday, June 17 to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Spencer Torkelson to hit a HR --- (+450, theScore Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSDET@HOU· Jun 17, 2:10 PM ET

Spencer Torkelson

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+450

Matchup vs. Peter Lambert (Astros), Daikin Park, 2:10PM EST

Torkelson tops off my list for June 17th, and here's why. He has a great matchup vs. Lambert today, a pitcher who has been vulnerable vs. right-handed hitters. He mainly throws the Four-Seamer, Slider, and Sinker. These are three pitches Torkelson has crushed this season. Due to the park he's playing in, he only needs to pull a fly ball around 310-360 feet for it to get out. When looking at the spray chart below, don't take the wind into effect, it's a dome game!

Pick 2: Miguel Vargas to hit a HR --- (+450, theScore Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCWS@NYY· Jun 17, 7:05 PM ET

Miguel Vargas

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+450

Matchup vs. Carlos Rodon (Yankees), Yankee Stadium, 7:05PM EST

Vargas is my second favorite home run to bet today. Rodon doesn't give up too many homers, but Vargas sure does crush left-handed pitchers. He has a total of 16 home runs on the year, seven of which came against LHP, nine against RHP. Initially, it seems like Vargas is better vs. RHP, and I wouldn't blame you for thinking so. However, there is a key detail I left out. He has faced a RHP over 100 times more than LHP this season. So yes, he is better vs. LHP. Below I have attached his numbers vs LHP, his matchup against Rodon and how much better he truly is vs. LHP.

Pick 3: Jarren Duran to hit a HR --- (+450, theScore Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTOR@BOS· Jun 17, 6:45 PM ET

Jarren Duran

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+450

Matchup vs. Max Scherzer (Blue Jays), Fenway Park, 6:45PM EST

Over this season, Scherzer has been extremely vulnerable to the deep ball, giving up 9 homers in just 22 IP. As most right-handed pitchers do, Scherzer has mainly struggled vs. left-handed hitters, giving up 6 home runs to them. Over his last 20 BBE, Duran has 5 home runs, along with a high fly ball, hard hit, and pull rate which is exactly what you want for your left-hander playing in Fenway. If he can hit a deep fly ball off Scherzer in the corner, it's got a high chance of leaving the yard.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +16538 at theScore Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-1.27U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 8-26-2 (+1.98U)
Total Wagered Today: Torkelson (0.67U), Vargas (0.69U), Duran (0.75U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.   

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