Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, June 25

I went through all 9 games on Thursday, June 25th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Paul Goldschmidt to hit a HR --- (+425, theScore Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSNYY@BOS· Jun 25, 7:10 PM ET

Paul Goldschmidt

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+425

Matchup vs. Connelly Early (Red Sox), Fenway Park, 7:10PM ET

The Yankees head to Boston to take on the Red Sox in one of the most historic rivalries in sports. Goldschmidt has a great chance to kick off the series hot, facing a vulnerable LHP in Early. Early has given up 14 home runs this season, 10 of which have come against right-handed batters. Of these ten, three have come in his past three starts! When looking at the data further, I saw that he has given up 2 of those 3 on the heater, which is both a pitch he throws a ton and a pitch Goldy has been crushing as of late.

Pick 2: Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a HR --- (+375, theScore Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCHC@NYM· Jun 25, 7:10 PM ET

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+375

Matchup vs. Freddy Peralta (New York Mets), Citi Field, 7:10PM ET

PCA has been one of the hottest bats in baseball, hitting 6 home runs over his past 10 games. PCA faces a pitcher he used to see all the time in MIL. However, Peralta has been struggling in the Big Apple. He has given up 12 home runs on the season, 11 of which have come vs left-handed batters. Due to his high fastball usage, this matchup vs. PCA makes for a tall task. Over his last 25 plate appearances, PCA has a 21.4% barrel, 14.3% pull barrel and a 57.1% fly ball/Launch angle sweet spot rate. So not only has he been hitting the ball extremely hard as of late, he is hitting it at the perfect angle more than half of the time. By looking at the spray chart, you can see that 4 of his past 12 fly balls off a Four-Seamer thrown from a RHP would be home runs in Citi Field. PCA has hit a homer off Peralta in the past... will history repeat itself?

Pick 3: Alec Burleson to hit a HR --- (+475, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSARI@STL· Jun 25, 7:45 PM ET

Alec Burleson

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+475

Matchup vs. Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks), Busch Stadium, 7:45PM ET

When Gallen pitches, it's hard to not bet a homer against him. With that said, I am taking Burleson to round out the parlay. Burleson has slowed down as of late, but he has proven that he can hammer the Four-Seamer off a right-hander. This season, he has a 13.3% pull barrel rate, 35.6% pull air rate and an average hit distance of 289 feet. In short, this dude rakes against RHP, especially against the Four-Seamer, which Gallen has kindly offered at a 40% clip.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +14239 at theScore Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-2.35U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 10-41-2 (-6.34U)
Total Wagered Today: Goldschmidt (0.73U), PCA (0.9U), Burleson (0.69U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.  

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