Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, August 19
I went through all 15 games on Wednesday, August 19th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Abimelec Ortiz to hit a HR --- (+670, DraftKings)
Kumar Rocker has been vulnerable to left-handed power. Against lefty bats he is allowing a .492 SLG with 10 home runs, a 1.49 HR/9 and a 47.3% hard-hit rate.
Ortiz is swinging a hot bat, with five home runs over his last 15 games including shots against the Cubs, Reds and Mets. His batted-ball line shows a 95.4 mph exit velocity, a 308-foot average distance, a 26.7% barrel rate and a 66.7% hard-hit rate, with six balls tracked at 300-plus feet and five at 350-plus. At +670 on DraftKings this is the big-price swing on the card.
Matt Olson to hit a HR --- (+350, Kalshi)
Taj Bradley carries a real home run risk to left-handed bats, giving up a .575 SLG and a 2.16 HR/9 to that side. PropFinder's matchup grid is loud here: Olson's four strongest power zones (middle +54, away +52, up +51, down +35) all sit where Bradley works, with power scores between 93 and 100.
Olson is scorching, running a 100.4 mph average exit velocity with a 33.3% barrel rate and a 73.3% hard-hit rate over his last 15, plus a home run off Schlittler on 8/9. Kalshi has the best number at +350.
Brett Baty to hit a HR --- (+600, Betway)
Michael King has been homer-prone to left-handed hitters, allowing a .512 SLG with a 2.38 HR/9 and a 25% HR/FB rate to that side, leaning on a changeup and sinker that Baty can drive.
Baty brings the raw pop, with a 96.8 mph exit velocity, eight balls tracked at 300-plus feet and five at 350-plus, and a 64% hard-hit rate. The spray overlay with King's mix at Citi Field points to a 22% home run rate on contact. Betway has the best price at +600.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays around +25195. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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