Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, July 29

I went through all 16 games on Wednesday, July 29th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Elly De La Cruz to hit a HR --- (+333, DraftKings)

Matchup vs. Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians), Great American Ball Park, 7:10 PM ET

Joey Cantillo leans on his four-seam fastball 34% of the time to right-handed hitters, and it is the one pitch in his mix that gets punished. Righties have hit .323 with a .586 slugging against it this season, with 6 home runs, a 51.8% hard-hit rate and a 20 degree average launch angle, so when he goes to the heater the ball leaves in a hurry. Elly De La Cruz steps in from the right side against the lefty and has been one of the most dangerous bats in baseball on that pitch group: 6 home runs and 8 near-misses on the season, a .814 slugging and .512 ISO, a 25.8% barrel rate, 64.5% hard-hit, a 96.9 mph average exit velocity, and 9 batted balls tracked at 350 feet or more.

Great American Ball Park only helps the cause. It carries a 1.08 home run factor for right-handed hitters, and on a clear 78 degree night the ball travels. On Cantillo's pitch mix, Elly's spray chart is a right-center peppering with a 26.3% home run rate on the balls he puts in the air, several landing well beyond the 379 and 404 foot markers. At +333 he is the shortest price of the three for a reason. He is the safest bat on the board.

Dominic Canzone to hit a HR --- (+406, DraftKings)

Matchup vs. Eric Lauer (Los Angeles Dodgers), Dodger Stadium, 10:10 PM ET

Another left-handed starter with a fastball problem. Eric Lauer throws his four-seam 44% of the time, and it has been the most hittable pitch he owns: 11 home runs allowed this season, a .516 slugging, an 18.6% barrel rate, 42.3% hard-hit, and a 42.3% fly-ball rate, so it gets in the air. It is also trending the wrong way. Over his last 10 outings hitters are barreling that four-seam 30.0% of the time with a 91.7 mph average exit velocity. Dominic Canzone has the power to make him pay: a .955 slugging and .591 ISO on Lauer's pitch group, 4 home runs and 4 near-misses, a 26.7% barrel rate, 66.7% hard-hit, a 95.5 mph exit velocity, and a 53.3% sweet-spot rate.

He is a left-handed bat facing a lefty, but Lauer's fastball does not care about the platoon, and Dodger Stadium is a proven power park. Canzone does not need many looks. He runs into one loud fly ball a night, and at +406 there is real value if Lauer lives in the zone with that four-seam.

Max Kepler to hit a HR --- (+590, DraftKings)

Matchup vs. Jared Jones (Pittsburgh Pirates), PNC Park, 12:35 PM ET

The longest price of the three comes with the most specific edge. Jared Jones is a fastball-first right-hander who throws his four-seam 46% of the time to left-handed hitters, and the lefties who catch up to it hit it hard: a 14.3% barrel rate and 40% hard-hit against. Max Kepler is built to punish that pitch. Against four-seam fastballs from righties he almost never misses, a 3.6% whiff rate, and when he connects the contact is loud: a 37.5% barrel rate on the season and 40% over his last five games, a 62.5% hard-hit rate, a 91.4 mph exit velocity, a 20 degree launch angle and a 50% fly-ball rate. It is a pure fastball-hunting profile against a pitcher who lives on the fastball.

The one knock is the park, and the weather answers it. PNC Park normally holds home runs down, but the wind is blowing out today, which adds the carry this matchup needs. If Jones stays true to his fastball-heavy approach against lefties, Kepler is the contrarian +590 swing that can pay for the whole card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +15018 at DraftKings. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 24-103-7 (-18.73U)
Total Wagered Today: Elly De La Cruz (1U), Dominic Canzone (1U), Max Kepler (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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