Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, July 7

I went through all 16 games on Tuesday, July 7th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Byron Buxton to hit a HR --- (+295, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCLE@MIN· Jul 7, 7:40 PM ET

Byron Buxton

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+295

Matchup vs. Joey Cantillo (Guardians), Target Field, 7:40 PM ET

Buxton leads off the card and the barrel data does the talking. Cantillo throws his four-seam fastball 37% of the time, and Buxton has been demolishing that pitch, barreling it at a 38% clip, on top of a 23% barrel rate across everything he puts in play this year. Cantillo has been homer prone at a 1.23 HR/9, and Buxton's raw power translates to any park. This is the most likely homer on the board today.

Pick 2: Juan Soto to hit a HR --- (+350, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSKC@NYM· Jul 7, 7:10 PM ET

Juan Soto

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+350

Matchup vs. Seth Lugo (Royals), Citi Field, 7:10 PM ET

Soto comes in second with a hot bat, 2 home runs over his last 5 games. Lugo has been vulnerable this year at a 1.68 HR/9, and Soto is squaring up Lugo's most-used pitch, a curveball he goes to 18% of the time, barreling it at a 22% clip. Pair that with a 17.4% barrel rate on the season and top-of-the-scale power in his home park, and this is a spot to trust.

Pick 3: Colson Montgomery to hit a HR --- (+400, theScore)

PLAYER HOME RUNSBOS@CWS· Jul 7, 7:40 PM ET

Colson Montgomery

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+400

Matchup vs. Payton Tolle (Red Sox), Rate Field, 7:40 PM ET

Montgomery rounds out the card and he is scorching, 3 home runs in his last 5 games and 7 over his last 20. Tolle has been getting hit hard at a 1.8 HR/9, and Montgomery barrels Tolle's four-seam fastball (38% usage) at 18% with a 16.1% barrel rate on the year. A red-hot bat in a soft matchup at plus money, the value swing of the three.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +8788. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 15-62-3 (-9U)
Total Wagered Today: Buxton (1U), Soto (1U), Montgomery (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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