Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, July 7
I went through all 16 games on Tuesday, July 7th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Pick 1: Byron Buxton to hit a HR --- (+295, Kalshi)
CLE@
MIN· Jul 7, 7:40 PM ET
Byron Buxton
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Joey Cantillo (Guardians), Target Field, 7:40 PM ET
Buxton leads off the card and the barrel data does the talking. Cantillo throws his four-seam fastball 37% of the time, and Buxton has been demolishing that pitch, barreling it at a 38% clip, on top of a 23% barrel rate across everything he puts in play this year. Cantillo has been homer prone at a 1.23 HR/9, and Buxton's raw power translates to any park. This is the most likely homer on the board today.
Pick 2: Juan Soto to hit a HR --- (+350, Hard Rock Bet)
KC@
NYM· Jul 7, 7:10 PM ET
Juan Soto
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Seth Lugo (Royals), Citi Field, 7:10 PM ET
Soto comes in second with a hot bat, 2 home runs over his last 5 games. Lugo has been vulnerable this year at a 1.68 HR/9, and Soto is squaring up Lugo's most-used pitch, a curveball he goes to 18% of the time, barreling it at a 22% clip. Pair that with a 17.4% barrel rate on the season and top-of-the-scale power in his home park, and this is a spot to trust.
Pick 3: Colson Montgomery to hit a HR --- (+400, theScore)
BOS@
CWS· Jul 7, 7:40 PM ET
Colson Montgomery
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Payton Tolle (Red Sox), Rate Field, 7:40 PM ET
Montgomery rounds out the card and he is scorching, 3 home runs in his last 5 games and 7 over his last 20. Tolle has been getting hit hard at a 1.8 HR/9, and Montgomery barrels Tolle's four-seam fastball (38% usage) at 18% with a 16.1% barrel rate on the year. A red-hot bat in a soft matchup at plus money, the value swing of the three.
HR Prop Parlay
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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