Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, July 6

I went through all 8 games on Monday, July 6th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Hunter Goodman to hit a HR --- (+210, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCOL@LAD· Jul 6, 10:10 PM ET

Hunter Goodman

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+210

Matchup vs. Eric Lauer (Dodgers), Dodger Stadium, 10:10 PM ET

Goodman leads off the card and the matchup sets up perfectly. Lauer is a lefty, and Goodman has been punishing left-handed pitching, barreling their four-seamers at a 33% clip over his last 15 balls in play with a 94.5 average exit velocity, and a 26% barrel rate against lefties on the season. His recent tape is loud, a 451-foot homer off Anthony Banda and a 421-foot shot off Jeffrey Springs, both in the last few weeks. Against Lauer's specific look he is running a 25% barrel rate with a 75% hard-hit rate and already has a 405-foot home run on the four-seamer. At +210 this is the most likely homer on the board today.

Pick 2: Michael Harris II to hit a HR --- (+450, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSNYM@ATL· Jul 6, 7:15 PM ET

Michael Harris II

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+450

Matchup vs. Freddy Peralta (Mets), Truist Park, 7:15 PM ET

Harris is next and the matchup stacks up in his favor a few different ways. Peralta has been vulnerable to lefties, a 1.74 HR/9 with a .474 SLG and a 24.5% HR/FB allowed, and he leans on his four-seamer 53% of the time against left-handed bats. Against that mix Harris is hard-hitting 60% of his contact with a 15% barrel rate and most of it in the air. The zone map is the kicker, six of Peralta's seven most-used zones land right in Harris's power zones, with power scores in the 90s middle and down. One more edge, Peralta gets tagged by number two hitters, who have slugged .787 with 7 homers off him, and that is exactly where Harris hits in the order. Plenty to like at +450.

Pick 3: Garrett Mitchell to hit a HR --- (+800, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIL@STL· Jul 6, 7:45 PM ET

Garrett Mitchell

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+800

Matchup vs. Dustin May (Cardinals), Busch Stadium, 7:45 PM ET

Mitchell rounds out the card as the value swing. May has been homer prone to left-handed bats, giving up a 1.48 HR/9 and a .475 SLG to lefties with a 20.9% HR/FB, and he goes to his four-seamer and cutter nearly 56% of the time against them. That is exactly Mitchell's wheelhouse. Against May's mix Mitchell is slugging .570 with a 26.9% barrel rate and a 67% hard-hit rate, and over his last 15 balls in play on right-handed fastballs and cutters he is barreling 33% at a 99.8 average exit velocity. His recent power is real, 421 feet off Merrill Kelly and a 435-foot cutter among them. At +800 this is the best value on the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +15245 at Hard Rock Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+0.83U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 15-59-3 (-6U)
Total Wagered Today: Goodman (1U), Harris (1U), Mitchell (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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