Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, September 22

I went through all 16 games on Tuesday, September 22nd to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.

Henry Bolte to hit a HR --- (+650, Fanatics)

Bolte is an A’s rookie with 11 home runs, and the platoon edge is the whole story: 7 of those 11 have come off left-handers. Against southpaws he hits .278 with a .476 slugging percentage and an .831 OPS, going deep once every 18 at-bats --- nearly double his overall rate. He draws lefty Yusei Kikuchi at home in Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, a hitter-friendly run environment (1.10 park factor).

The model tags him at 17.5% to homer with a 96th-percentile tier score, backed by a 15.4% barrel rate and a 109.6 mph max exit velocity. Kikuchi’s fastball-slider mix leaves plenty of pitches to punish, and at +650 the price sits well above where the model values the bat.

Jake Burger to hit a HR --- (+376, Novig)

Burger is the model’s favorite bat on the board at 28.1% to go deep. He already owns 16 home runs and a .183 ISO, but the split that matters is against lefties: .264 with a .505 slugging percentage, an .815 OPS and a homer every 18 at-bats, with the strikeouts cut to just 18%. He gets left-hander Sean Manaea at home in Globe Life Field.

Manaea is the target --- a 1.73 HR/9 starter the model flags as highly vulnerable --- and Burger’s 19.2% barrel rate is the strongest of tonight’s three picks. The ballpark plays a touch under neutral (0.94), but the matchup and raw power carry it. Novig’s +376 is the best number available across legal books.

Jordan Lawlar to hit a HR --- (+590, Novig)

Lawlar is the longshot swing, and the case is built on the pitcher and the park more than the bat. The Diamondbacks rookie heads into Coors Field --- the best home run park in baseball --- against Kyle Freeland, a left-hander the model grades as one of the most homer-prone starters on the slate (2.37 HR/9, a .605 opponent slugging percentage).

Lawlar’s own numbers against lefties are thin so far, so this is a projection play on environment: elite altitude, a pitcher who leaves the ball up, and a bat with a .187 ISO and a homer every 22 at-bats overall. At +590 it’s a worthwhile boom-or-bust leg to anchor the longshot side of the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +20816. Odds are subject to change.

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