Best MLB Home Run Props Today: HR Picks for Saturday, July 4
I went through all 15 games on Saturday, July 4th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I picked out the vulnerable pitchers, the strong hitter splits, and the ballpark spots that set up for power. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Pick 1: Kyle Stowers to hit a HR (+217, Novig)
MIA@
ATH· Jul 4, 9:40 PM ET
Kyle Stowers
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Aaron Civale (Athletics), Sutter Health Park, 9:40PM ET
Stowers leads the card with the cleanest profile on the board, grading out perfect across every window I check. He is a lefty who pulls almost everything he barrels (58% of his barrels go to the pull side), and that plays right into Sutter Health Park, the Athletics' temporary home in Sacramento and one of the most homer-friendly yards in the league. Civale has been very hittable this year, so a pull-heavy lefty in a small park is exactly the spot I want. The price is short because the market already knows, but this is the best pure matchup of the three.
Pick 2: Ben Rice to hit a HR (+190, FanDuel)
MIN@
NYY· Jul 4, 1:35 PM ET
Ben Rice
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Zebby Matthews (Twins), Yankee Stadium, 1:35PM ET
Rice is the one I am most confident in, and it is a perfect storm. He is a lefty who pulls 56% of his barrels, he plays half his games in Yankee Stadium with that short porch in right, and he crushes fastballs from righties at a 42% barrel rate on the four-seamer. Zebby Matthews throws his four-seamer 37% of the time to lefties, so Rice sees his favorite pitch all afternoon in the exact yard built for his swing. The price is short at +190 because everyone can see it, but this is the cleanest bat-to-park-to-pitch fit on the board.
Pick 3: Jordan Walker to hit a HR (+402, DraftKings)
STL@
CHC· Jul 4, 8:08 PM ET
Jordan Walker
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Shota Imanaga (Cubs), Wrigley Field, 8:08PM ET
Walker rounds out the list against the exact arm you want to target. Imanaga has been extremely homer-prone this year, giving up a 2.17 HR/9, and he throws his four-seamer 44% of the time to righties. Walker barrels that pitch at 28%, so he is set to see his best pitch nearly every other offering. He has also been snakebit lately, with a 7.7% expected home run rate against just 3.3% actual, so there is real regression waiting to happen. At +402 in a Wrigley spot, that is a lot of value.
HR Prop Parlay
.png)
Combining all three home run props: +3842at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake). Results do not include any combination of picks, I am just tracking straight bets.
Yesterday's Results: 2-1 (+5.37U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 13-55-3 (-7.5U)
Total Wagered Today: Stowers (1.44U), Rice (1.65U), Walker (0.91U)
This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Must be of legal age in your jurisdiction. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling is a problem, support is available — 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
Find profitable props faster
PropFinder has all the tools to help you make smarter bets and find real edges with data-driven insights.