Best MLB Home Run Props Today: HR Picks for Friday, October 16

I went through the 1 game on Friday, October 16, and with only one matchup on the board, this is a playoff slate. Tampa Bay visits Cleveland at Progressive Field, and I looked for the best anytime home run bats on both sides.

The picks below are ranked by PropFinder's PF Rating for home runs, which weighs recent exit velocity and barrel rate along with how each hitter matches up with the opposing pitcher's mix.

Junior Caminero to hit a HR (+614, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@CLE· Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+614

Junior Caminero has 22 home runs in 331 plate appearances this season with an ISO of .261, a 13.4% barrel rate, a 53.1% hard-hit rate and a 93.9 mph average exit velocity. His recent form is even louder: over his last 15 batted balls he is averaging 94.8 mph with a 20% barrel rate. He has also sent 30 batted balls 350 feet or more.

Cleveland starts Shawn Armstrong, a righty, and Caminero's PF Rating of 62.6 gets help from how he hits sinkers, four-seamers and sliders, which make up most of Armstrong's mix against right-handed bats. Progressive Field plays about neutral for homers at a 0.985 factor. The best price is +614 at Novig against a +550 median across 11 books, and a hitter with this much recent contact quality at that number is the best value on the board.

Jonathan Aranda to hit a HR (+900, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@CLE· Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET

Jonathan Aranda

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+900

Jonathan Aranda has 9 home runs in 259 plate appearances with an ISO of .175, a 10.8% barrel rate, a 53% hard-hit rate and a 93.9 mph average exit velocity. The recent numbers are stronger than the season line, with a 96.63 mph average exit velocity and a 13.33% barrel rate over his last 15 batted balls. He also has 19 near home runs.

He faces Armstrong, a righty, and the pitch-mix inputs like his history against four-seam fastballs, which is where his ISO against right-handers is most concentrated. Progressive Field is about neutral for homers at 0.985. Aranda earns a PF Rating of 53.5, and the best price is +900 at Novig against a +750 median across 11 books. A lefty bat with hard contact lately and a plus number makes for a fair longshot.

Nathaniel Lowe to hit a HR (+1076, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@CLE· Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET

Nathaniel Lowe

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+1076

Nathaniel Lowe has 11 home runs in 313 plate appearances with an ISO of .182, a 9.8% barrel rate, a 43.3% hard-hit rate and an 89.7 mph average exit velocity. Over his last 15 batted balls he is averaging 94.87 mph, though his barrel rate over that span is only 6.67%, so the power is more about hard contact than damage right now. He has 22 batted balls of 350 feet or more.

Tampa Bay starts Nick Martinez, a righty, and Lowe's profile against right-handers leans on four-seam fastballs, a pitch Martinez uses far less than his sinker and changeup. Progressive Field is about neutral for homers at 0.985. Lowe carries a PF Rating of 41.5, and the best price is +1076 at Novig against an +850 median across 11 books. This is the highest-variance pick of the three, but the price is the longest too.

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