Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, September 4
I went through all 16 games on Friday, September 4th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.
Nolan Arenado to hit a HR --- (+592, Kalshi)
Arenado is a 21-homer bat drawing Cristian Javier, an extreme fly-ball right-hander the model grades at a 0.71 HR-risk mark to right-handed hitters. Javier has been hittable to that side this year, allowing a .515 slugging percentage, a 2.22 HR/9 and a 14.8% HR/FB rate.
Arenado’s recent contact profile is strong, with a 75% hard-hit rate and several deep fly balls in the sample. At +592 the veteran power play against a homer-prone arm carries real value.
Jake Bauers to hit a HR --- (+357, Polymarket)
Bauers is quietly having a big year: 23 home runs, a .487 slugging percentage and an .876 OPS. He is a left-handed bat getting the right-hander Rhett Lowder (0.39 HR-risk to lefties) in Great American Ball Park, one of the most homer-friendly yards in baseball.
His batted-ball history is loud, with a couple of 106-to-109 mph home runs in recent games and a 66.7% HR/FB rate in the sample. At +357 the park-and-platoon combination makes this a strong leg.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand to hit a HR --- (+450, Fanatics)
Encarnacion-Strand has been scorching, with a .508 slugging percentage and a .822 OPS on the year and elite recent batted ball, including a 40% barrel rate and a .842 slugging mark in the look. He is a right-handed bat with the platoon edge against the left-hander Ranger Suarez.
His power scores light up the zone chart, grading 90-plus in several of the areas Suarez works, with four of the pitcher’s seven most-used zones lining up with his hot spots. At +450 the hot bat is worth the swing.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +13448. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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