Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, September 3

I went through all 9 games on Thursday, September 3rd to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.

Heriberto Hernandez to hit a HR --- (+357, Polymarket)

Hernandez brings 22 home runs and a .466 slugging percentage into a matchup the model loves. He draws Michael Wacha, a right-hander who has been extremely homer-prone to right-handed bats this year, with the model grading him at a 1.84 HR-risk mark and his recent line to righties an ugly .769 slugging with a 25% HR/FB rate.

Hernandez’s matchup edges light up the zone chart, grading 90-plus in several of the areas Wacha attacks, and his recent batted-ball sample is strong with a 26.7% barrel rate. At +357 that is a lot of value in a righty-on-righty power spot.

Cal Raleigh to hit a HR --- (+363, Kalshi)

Raleigh is a 20-homer switch-hitter who will bat left-handed against the right-hander Jack Perkins, and Perkins has been vulnerable to lefties: the model flags a 0.59 HR-risk mark to that side, with an 18.8% HR/FB rate and a .467 slugging allowed.

Raleigh’s recent power is scorching, a 50% barrel rate and a 70% hard-hit rate over his last 10 with a 108-plus mph max exit velocity. At +363 with that kind of pop at home, the big lefty side is live.

Jackson Chourio to hit a HR --- (+440, Kalshi)

Chourio is the best all-around bat on this card: 21 home runs, a .287 average and a .487 slugging percentage. He gets Kevin Gausman at Wrigley Field, and his spray chart against that pitch mix shows a 21.1% home run rate in the yard.

His recent contact is elite, with a 101 mph average exit velocity, a 26.7% barrel rate and an 86.7% hard-hit rate in the sample. At +440 in a hitter-friendly park, this is a strong ceiling leg to finish the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +7804. Odds are subject to change.

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