Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Saturday, September 5
I went through all 15 games on Saturday, September 5th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.
Michael Harris II to hit a HR --- (+525, Novig)
Harris is in the middle of a career year: 24 home runs, a .294 average and a .501 slugging percentage. He is a left-handed bat facing Zack Wheeler, whom the model flags as homer-prone to lefties with a 0.83 HR-risk mark to that side, and Wheeler has been tagged hard by left-handed hitters recently.
The game is at Citizens Bank Park, one of the friendlier yards for left-handed power, and Harris’s own contact profile is strong with a 60% hard-hit rate in the sample. At +525 the lefty in a bandbox against a vulnerable arm is real value.
Roman Anthony to hit a HR --- (+592, Kalshi)
This is the ceiling swing. Anthony has just 3 home runs on the year, but the rookie’s recent batted ball is scorching: a 100.4 mph average exit velocity, a 26.7% barrel rate and an 80% hard-hit rate over his last 15, with a home run on September 2nd and barrels on the 1st and 4th (max EV 110.7).
He is a left-handed bat drawing Chris Bassitt at Camden Yards. At +592 the hot bat is a strong-priced boom leg to round out the card.
Griffin Conine to hit a HR --- (+483, Pinnacle)
Conine brings 14 home runs and a .479 slugging percentage into an excellent spot. He draws Javier Assad, one of the most homer-prone arms on the board to left-handed hitters: a 0.93 HR-risk mark, a .509 slugging allowed, a 25.5% HR/FB rate and a 2.68 HR/9 to that side.
Conine’s power scores light up the zone chart, grading 90-plus in several of the areas Assad works, with three of the pitcher’s seven most-used zones lining up with his hot spots. At +483 the lefty power in a plus matchup is worth the swing.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +18243. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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