Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, August 24
I went through all 10 games on Monday, August 24th to find the best home run matchups. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Abimelec Ortiz to hit a HR --- (+583, Polymarket)
COL@
WSH· Aug 24, 6:45 PM ET
Abimelec Ortiz
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to left-handed power, allowing a .517 SLG with nine home runs and a 1.76 HR/9 to that side. PropFinder's matchup grid backs it up: Ortiz's strongest zones (way up and out +51, up and out +48, up +48) sit right where Feltner works, with power scores reaching 100.
Ortiz is swinging a hot bat with real thump, showing nine balls tracked at 300-plus feet and five at 350-plus in the sample while running homers in bunches lately. At +583 on Polymarket this is the big-price swing on the card.
Max Muncy to hit a HR --- (+525, BetMGM)
MIN@
ATH· Aug 24, 9:40 PM ET
Max Muncy
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Zebby Matthews gives up power to right-handed bats, sitting at a .450 SLG with nine home runs and a 22.1% HR/FB rate to that side. Sutter Health Park has played as a hitter's yard, and the spray overlay with Matthews' mix points to a 35% home run rate on contact.
Muncy brings the pop with a 20% barrel rate, eight balls tracked at 300-plus feet, five at 350-plus and six near-misses in the sample. BetMGM has the best number at +525.
Esmerlyn Valdez to hit a HR --- (+400, BetMGM)
PIT@
SD· Aug 24, 9:40 PM ET
Esmerlyn Valdez
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Robbie Ray has surrendered 17 home runs to right-handed hitters with a 1.51 HR/9, and Valdez feasts on left-handed pitching. Against lefties his four-seam line is a .917 SLG, his slider a 1.400 SLG and his sinker a 1.333 SLG.
Valdez brings a 98.2 mph exit velocity with seven balls tracked at 300-plus feet and four at 350-plus. Even in a pitcher's park, that platoon edge is worth the price. BetMGM is best at +400.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +16197. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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