Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, August 25
I went through all 15 games on Tuesday, August 25th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Jackson Chourio to hit a HR --- (+499, Polymarket)
Zach Thornton has been vulnerable to right-handed bats, carrying a 1.07 HR risk to that side. His cutter (30% usage) has been tagged for a .593 SLG and his four-seam for a .538 SLG with three home runs to righties.
PropFinder's matchup grid is loud here: Chourio's strongest zones (in +55, down and in +53, middle +34) sit right where Thornton lives, with power scores reaching 97. Chourio is swinging it well with a 26.7% barrel rate, a 66.7% hard-hit rate and seven balls tracked at 300-plus feet. Polymarket has the best number at +499.
Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a HR --- (+440, Kalshi)
Max Scherzer has been hittable by right-handers lately, carrying a 1.14 HR risk with a .636 SLG, a 3.38 HR/9 and a 33% HR/FB rate to that side over his recent starts.
Witt is locked in with three home runs over his last 10 games, a 92.4 mph exit velocity, six balls tracked at 300-plus feet and six at 350-plus, and a 60% hard-hit rate. Kalshi has the best price at +440.
Isaac Paredes to hit a HR --- (+614, Novig)
Will Warren gets tagged by right-handed bats, sitting at a 1.15 HR risk with a .657 SLG, a 2.89 HR/9 and a 50% HR/FB rate to that side over his recent outings.
Paredes is one of the most pull-happy power hitters in baseball, with 47 balls tracked at 300-plus feet and 21 at 350-plus on the season and a 29% pull-air rate. The spray overlay against Warren's mix at Yankee Stadium points the damage to the pull side and the short left-field line. At +614 on Novig this is the big-price play on the card.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +16143. Odds are subject to change.
Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available --- 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
Related reading
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, August 28
Today's top three MLB home run props for Friday, August 28: Matt Olson, Hunter Feduccia, and Kody Clemens.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, August 26
Today's top three MLB home run props for Wednesday, August 26: Randal Grichuk, Nolan Arenado, and Daylen Lile.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, August 24
Today's top three MLB home run props for Monday, August 24: Abimelec Ortiz, Max Muncy, and Esmerlyn Valdez.
Find profitable props faster
PropFinder has all the tools to help you make smarter bets and find real edges with data-driven insights.