Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, August 31
I went through all 12 games on Monday, August 31st to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.
Jake Burger to hit a HR --- (+507, Kalshi)
Burger draws a left-hander at home in Arlington, and the raw power is the sell here: 23 home runs on the year with a .425 slugging percentage. Against Gage Jump his recent batted-ball sample is loud, a 97-plus mph average exit velocity with a 33% barrel rate and multiple near-homers already logged.
Jump has been hittable to right-handed bats, giving up a .478 slugging mark and a 14.3% HR/FB rate to that side. At +507 Burger is a strong-priced power play with a real path to going deep.
Kevin McGonigle to hit a HR --- (+675, BetMGM)
This is the boom leg. McGonigle is more of a contact bat than a slugger, but the matchup is what pops: Taj Bradley has been extremely homer-prone to left-handed hitters this year, surrendering 15 home runs with a 20.3% HR/FB rate and a 1.56 HR/9 to that side. The model grades Bradley at a 0.78 HR-risk mark versus lefties.
McGonigle has quality contact numbers in the look and the ball carries at Target Field. At +675 the price makes this an easy swing on the card.
Bryce Eldridge to hit a HR --- (+413, Novig)
Eldridge is the young power bat of the group, with 15 home runs in just 91 games to go with a .451 slugging percentage and an .804 OPS. In this matchup his power scores light up the zone chart, grading 90-plus in several of the areas Bryce Elder attacks, and three of the pitcher’s seven most-used zones line up with Eldridge’s hot spots.
He heads to Truist Park, a hitter-friendly yard, with a .587 slug and a .424 wOBA in the recent sample against Elder. At +413 the lefty’s pop plays up in a strong spot.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +20829. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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