Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, September 2

I went through all 15 games on Wednesday, September 2nd to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.

Samuel Basallo to hit a HR --- (+390, Fanatics)

Basallo heads to Coors Field, which is exactly where you want a young power bat with 17 home runs in 97 games. He draws Tomoyuki Sugano, a right-hander who has been very homer-prone to left-handed hitters this year: a .591 slugging mark, 20 home runs and a 22.8% HR/FB rate to that side, with the model grading him at a 1.56 HR-risk versus lefties.

Basallo’s matchup edges light up the zone chart, grading 90-plus in several of the areas Sugano attacks, and his recent batted-ball sample is strong. At +390 in the best home run park in baseball, that is a lot of value.

Hunter Goodman to hit a HR --- (+323, Kalshi)

Goodman is the power anchor of this card: 36 home runs with a .538 slugging percentage, and he gets to hit at home in Coors Field. The lefty Trevor Rogers has been hittable to right-handed bats, with the model flagging a 1.17 HR-risk mark to that side and his four-seam getting slugged at a .556 clip.

Goodman’s recent power numbers against left-handed pitching are loud, with a 24% barrel rate and a 116 mph max exit velocity in the sample. At +323 with 36 bombs already and Coors behind him, this is the safest leg on the board.

Victor Mesa Jr. to hit a HR --- (+525, Hard Rock)

This is the ceiling swing. Mesa has 10 home runs in just 57 games, but the matchup is the sell: Justin Hagenman has been extremely homer-prone to left-handed hitters, with the model grading him at a 1.92 HR-risk versus lefties. Mesa’s spray chart against that pitch mix shows a 14.3% home run rate at Tropicana Field.

His recent look against Hagenman is excellent, a .703 slugging mark and a .452 wOBA. At +525 the young lefty is a strong-priced boom leg to finish the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +11775. Odds are subject to change.

Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available --- 1-800-GAMBLER.