Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, July 5

I went through all 15 games on Sunday, July 5th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Brandon Lowe to hit a HR --- (+325, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSPIT@WSH· Jul 5, 1:00 PM ET

Brandon Lowe

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+325

Matchup vs. Cade Cavalli (Nationals), Nationals Park, 1:00 PM ET

Lowe leads off the card and the matchup does a lot of the work. Cavalli is a righty who has been homer prone against left-handed bats, giving up a 1.84 HR/9 to lefties, and he leans on his four-seam fastball, throwing it 37% of the time to lefties. That is exactly what Lowe wants to see. Against Cavalli's pitch mix Lowe is running a .654 SLG with a 25.9% barrel rate, and over his last 15 balls in play on those pitches he sits at 53% hard-hit, a 20% HR/FB, and 47% pull. He is a lefty who does his damage in the air and pulls it in a hurry, and Cavalli's heater is the pitch he keeps squaring up. At +325 this is the most likely homer on the board today.

Pick 2: Bryce Harper to hit a HR --- (+425, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSPHI@KC· Jul 5, 3:00 PM ET

Bryce Harper

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+425

Matchup vs. Luinder Avila (Royals), Kauffman Stadium, 3:00 PM ET

Here is the fun one. Most people are going to run straight to Kyle Schwarber for the Phillies homer, and Schwarber is a strong bet in his own right, but against Avila's specific mix Harper has actually been the bigger threat and you get him at close to double the price. Against Avila's arsenal Harper has 10 home runs to Schwarber's 9, with a .778 SLG next to Schwarber's .583. Avila is a righty who goes to his four-seam fastball 29% of the time against lefties, and lefties are slugging .500 off it. Harper eats four-seamers alive, hitting .426 with a 1.064 SLG and 9 of his homers coming on that pitch while barreling it at 18.9%. Same matchup, more power in the sample, and a much longer number.

Pick 3: Jackson Merrill to hit a HR --- (+525, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSD@LAD· Jul 5, 7:20 PM ET

Jackson Merrill

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+525

Matchup vs. Emmet Sheehan (Dodgers), Dodger Stadium, 7:20 PM ET

Merrill rounds out the card and Sheehan is the reason. Sheehan is a four-seam heavy righty who throws his fastball nearly 45% of the time against lefties, and that pitch has been a problem, lefties have taken it deep 7 times with a 25.6% barrel rate and a .741 SLG. Merrill sees that fastball 39% of the time and barrels it at 18% with a 54% hard-hit rate, and he punishes the secondary stuff too, slugging .941 against sliders. His spray chart over the last 60 days is stacked with loud contact and deep fly balls to all fields, and with a breeze blowing at Dodger Stadium there is carry to work with. At +525 he is the value swing of the three.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +13845 at Hard Rock Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+0.5U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 14-57-3 (-7U)
Total Wagered Today: Lowe (0.92U), Harper (0.68U), Merrill (0.57U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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