Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, September 7
I went through all 11 games on Monday, September 7th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate. Happy Labor day! BOL!
Bryce Harper to hit a HR --- (+507, Kalshi)
ATL@
PHI· 2026-09-07T17:05:00Z
Bryce Harper
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Harper is in the middle of a monster season: 27 home runs, an .891 OPS and a .501 slugging percentage. He gets Grant Holmes at home in Citizens Bank Park, one of the best parks in the league for left-handed power, and his recent batted ball is loud with a pair of 104-to-107 mph exit velocities and a home run in the sample.
At +507 the superstar lefty in a bandbox is strong value, and the price is up there simply because pitchers pitch around him. When he does get a ball to drive, it leaves.
Jackson Chourio to hit a HR --- (+471, Kalshi)
CHC@
MIL· 2026-09-07T18:10:00Z
Jackson Chourio
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Chourio is a 21-homer bat with a .473 slugging percentage, and he draws the left-hander Matthew Boyd, whom the model flags to right-handed hitters with a 1.15 HR-risk mark. Boyd has been vulnerable to that side, allowing a .547 slugging percentage and a 26.3% HR/FB rate to righties.
Chourio’s power scores light up the zone chart, grading 93-to-100 in several of the areas Boyd works, and his recent contact is elite with a 97.8 mph exit velocity and a 24% barrel rate. At +471 this is a premium matchup.
Roman Anthony to hit a HR --- (+707, Kalshi)
LAA@
BOS· 2026-09-07T17:35:00Z
Roman Anthony
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
This is the ceiling swing. Anthony has just 3 home runs on the year, but the rookie’s batted ball keeps grading loud, with a 95 mph exit velocity, a 26.7% barrel rate and a 66.7% hard-hit rate in the sample.
He is a left-handed bat drawing Grayson Rodriguez, whom the model flags to lefties with a 0.92 HR-risk mark and a .500 slugging allowed to that side, at Fenway Park. At +707 the hot bat is a strong-priced boom leg to round out the card.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +27870. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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