Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, September 6
I went through all 15 games on Sunday, September 6th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.
Elly De La Cruz to hit a HR --- (+471, Kalshi)
De La Cruz is the headliner: 22 home runs, an .840 OPS and a .484 slugging percentage. He is a switch-hitter batting right-handed against the left-hander Kyle Harrison, whom the model flags hard to right-handed bats with a 1.67 HR-risk mark, and Harrison’s four-seam has been hammered by righties.
The game is at Great American Ball Park, one of the best home run parks in the league, and De La Cruz’s own contact is loud with a 99 mph exit velocity and an 80% hard-hit rate in the sample. At +471 he is the clear anchor.
Corey Seager to hit a HR --- (+426, Novig)
Seager has 14 home runs in an injury-shortened season, but the raw power is still there. He draws Ian Seymour, and his matchup edges grade well, with a pair of 90-plus power-score zones in the areas the lefty attacks most.
Seager’s recent contact profile is strong, with a 94 mph average exit velocity and a 64.7% hard-hit rate in the look. At +426 the big lefty’s pop is worth the price at home in Globe Life Field.
Mickey Gasper to hit a HR --- (+707, Kalshi)
This is the boom leg. Gasper has been excellent in limited time: a .503 slugging percentage and a .882 OPS, with a scorching recent stretch that includes a 97.1 mph average exit velocity, a 33.3% barrel rate and an 80% HR/FB over his last 15, plus home runs on September 1st and 4th.
He is a switch-hitter batting left-handed against the right-hander Kyle Bradish at Camden Yards. At +707 the hot bat is a strong-priced ceiling swing to finish the card.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +23447. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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