Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, September 8
I went through all 15 games on Tuesday, September 8th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.
Spencer Jones to hit a HR --- (+433, Polymarket)
Jones is a rookie with monster raw power: a 101.4 mph average exit velocity and a 50% barrel rate over his last 10, topping out at 112 mph. He gets Gabriel Hughes at home in Yankee Stadium, and that short right-field porch is a dream for a left-handed slugger with this kind of thump.
His contact quality is loud enough to translate anywhere, and in this park a mishit fly ball can sneak out. At +433 the power upside is well worth the price.
Daylen Lile to hit a HR --- (+547, Kalshi)
Lile is a 20-homer bat, and his matchup edges against Casey Mize grade strong: five of Mize’s seven most-used zones line up with Lile’s hot spots, with power scores of 95-to-98 in several of them. Mize has been homer-prone, with a 0.70 HR-risk mark to lefties and a .706 slugging allowed in the recent look.
Petco Park is a tougher yard, but the matchup quality carries this one. At +547 the lefty’s pop is worth the swing.
Samuel Basallo to hit a HR --- (+405, Polymarket)
Basallo has 17 home runs and a .420 slugging percentage, and he draws Tanner Bibee, whom the model flags to left-handed hitters with a 0.82 HR-risk mark. Bibee has allowed a .439 slugging percentage and a 21.7% HR/FB rate to lefties this year.
Basallo’s own contact is loud, with a 92.7 mph exit velocity and a 50.9% hard-hit rate, and his spray chart shows the pull-side power plays at Camden Yards. At +405 this is a strong matchup at home.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +17100. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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