Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, September 9
I went through all 15 games on Wednesday, September 9th to find the best home run matchups so you don’t have to. Using PropFinder’s data tools, I’ve identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today’s slate.
Bryce Harper to hit a HR --- (+525, Fanatics)
HOU@
PHI· 2026-09-09T22:40:00Z
Bryce Harper
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Harper is in the middle of a monster season: 27 home runs, an .885 OPS and a .497 slugging percentage. He gets Hunter Brown at home in Citizens Bank Park, and his spray chart against that pitch mix shows the fly balls carrying out at a high rate in the park.
His batted ball is elite, with a 96.4 mph exit velocity, a 60.3% hard-hit rate and a 20.7% barrel rate, and the wind is blowing out around 13 mph. At +525 the superstar lefty is strong value.
Ben Rice to hit a HR --- (+264, Novig)
COL@
NYY· 2026-09-09T23:05:00Z
Ben Rice
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Rice has quietly mashed 36 home runs with a .522 slugging percentage, and he draws Tomoyuki Sugano, whom the model flags to left-handed hitters with a 1.15 HR-risk mark. Sugano has allowed a .568 slugging percentage and a 21.7% HR/FB rate to lefties this year.
Rice’s matchup edges light up the zone chart, grading 86-to-99 in several of the areas Sugano works, with four of the pitcher’s seven most-used zones lining up with his hot spots, and Yankee Stadium’s short porch is tailor-made. At +264 this is the safest leg on the card.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a HR --- (+319, DraftKings)
CHC@
MIL· 2026-09-09T23:40:00Z
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Crow-Armstrong is having an MVP-caliber season: 41 home runs, a .949 OPS and a .574 slugging percentage. He draws Logan Henderson, whom the model grades at a 0.61 HR-risk mark to lefties, and his recent power is loud with a 24% barrel rate in the sample and a home run on September 3rd.
At +319 the 40-homer bat is a premium play to round out the card, and the ceiling on a hitter this locked in is as high as anyone on the board.
HR Prop Parlay
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Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +9432. Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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