Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, August 26
I went through all 15 games on Wednesday, August 26th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Randal Grichuk to hit a HR --- (+499, Polymarket)
MacKenzie Gore has been hittable by right-handed bats, giving up a .393 SLG with 16 home runs to that side. His cutter (.619 SLG, four home runs) and four-seam (.375 SLG, six home runs) are both live against righties.
Grichuk mashes left-handed pitching. Against lefties his four-seam line is a .585 SLG, his changeup a .676 SLG, his cutter a .667 SLG and his sinker a .875 SLG. His recent batted-ball data shows a 95.8 mph exit velocity, a 26.7% barrel rate, a 60% hard-hit rate and six balls tracked at 300-plus feet. Polymarket has the best number at +499.
Nolan Arenado to hit a HR --- (+636, Polymarket)
Matthew Boyd carries a scary 1.45 HR risk to right-handed bats, allowing them a .451 SLG with 13 home runs and a 1.82 HR/9. PropFinder's matchup grid is loud here: Arenado's strongest zones (middle +58, up and out +41) sit right where Boyd works, with power scores of 90 to 100.
Arenado is a lift-and-pull hitter with a 40% pull-air rate and a middle-of-the-zone power profile that lines up perfectly with how Boyd attacks righties. At +636 on Polymarket this is the big-price play on the card.
Daylen Lile to hit a HR --- (+545, Novig)
Tanner Gordon has a real problem with left-handed bats, carrying a 1.41 HR risk with a .607 SLG, 12 home runs and a 2.44 HR/9 to that side. He goes to a four-seam fastball 45% of the time against lefties.
Lile has been squaring the ball up, with a 40% barrel rate and a 40% pull-air rate over his recent sample. The spray overlay against Gordon's four-seam mix at Nationals Park points to a 13.8% home run rate on contact. Novig has the best price at +545.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +26425. Odds are subject to change.
Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available --- 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
Related reading
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, August 28
Today's top three MLB home run props for Friday, August 28: Matt Olson, Hunter Feduccia, and Kody Clemens.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, August 25
Today's top three MLB home run props for Tuesday, August 25: Jackson Chourio, Bobby Witt Jr., and Isaac Paredes.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, August 24
Today's top three MLB home run props for Monday, August 24: Abimelec Ortiz, Max Muncy, and Esmerlyn Valdez.
Find profitable props faster
PropFinder has all the tools to help you make smarter bets and find real edges with data-driven insights.